It is Obvious

Chris Rick has got altogether too much to say

I wonder

Posted by chrisrick13 on February 25, 2011

It is obvious: it only takes good men to do nothing for evil to prosper.

Not my words.

There was a time in the first Iraq war when the defeated Iraqi troops were streaming home down a valley overflown by allied planes.  The Americans call it a turkey shoot.  It was certainly fish in a barrel.  They couldn’t do the slaughter that Saddam would have done without compunction were roles reversed, and let them retreat.  I thought at the time that they should have leafleted the area and told the troops that any moving vehicle would be obliterated, and walking humans would  be unharmed.  This would have efectively disarmed Saddam.  He might well have just bought more arms, but the southern Arabs would probably have succeeded in their uprising.  Then the uprisings were not supported by the west (or anyone else).  Had they been I wonder whether we would have waited 20 years for Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and the others that will follow.  Was that why Saddam was left?

I wonder now, today, what would happen were there some active support for the revolts?  Would we see more?  Saudi Arabia comes to mind.  China? Russia? Venezuela?  Scotland?

We are in dangerous and uncertain times…but I don’t think that it is any different to the past thousand years, certainly the past two hundred.

I have written much about triggers making predicting an impossible task.  I have already pondered if certain events were triggers, but they were not.  I wonder now whether a street trader setting fire to himself in Tunisia is the trigger.  If triggers are impossible to predict I wonder if analysis of a certain state of affairs would reveal that it was vulnerable to a trigger and thereby allow prediction based on a vulnerability to triggers and the probability of one happening.

It is obvious that we really do not know enough information about what governments are doing ‘behind the scenes’ to make accurate statements about what is actually happening and why.  We can only speculate.

As for the line of Arab countries, it matters now because of oil, but it soon won’t.

It is obvious: it only takes good men to do nothing for evil to prosper and there is a lot of that going on.

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