It is Obvious

Chris Rick has got altogether too much to say


Posted by chrisrick13 on April 4, 2011

It is obvious: the Chinese are inscrutable.

China is big and ugly, but is a long way away.  Hence I know little about it and certainly not enough.

It is a totalitarian state that gives not a jot for the human rights of its citizens or the environment.  In common with all states where it is ruled by the minority with the majority having no say, it is scared silly of the internet.  It has the world’s largest population (1.2bn?): certainly a fifth but nearly a quarter of the world’s population.  It is run by some astute people…shackled by dogma.  It has spent a lot of its resources in recent times running around the world, and particularly in Africa buying scarce resources.  It is moving from an agrarian third world country to a ‘modern’ industrial society.

It is late to the party of growth and increased quality of life for its citizens.  Indeed it is almost certainly too late.  At the moment it has 9% economic growth which means it will double its GDP in (rule of 70) 8 years…well that ain’t gonna happen.  So what will happen?

China is not one country but many.  It does not have the nice straight line borders drawn by colonial conquerors that so many countries have, where often two or more countries were arbitrarily slammed together and given a new name.  A good example is Libya which is two countries.  Iraq, which was an agglomeration of many, is another and there are many more.  There are regular revolts in China.  These are easily handled by moving troops from the south to handle the north.  They have been enemies for several millenia so have no compunction in shooting fellow Chinese.   (We hear little of them.)  If you doubt me then ask a Tibetan or a Mongolian which country they live in.  So China is an agglomeration that is not easily held together.

What of the move from the country to the large cities where people work the factories rather than the land?  Unlike peasant farming this is not sustainable.  China is not as profligate with its oil as say the US or Europe so that diminishing resources will not have such a large effect on the country.  It builds coal fired power stations at a phenomenal rate, as I said, with scant regard for the economy.

As a totalitarian state China will do what it needs to survive.  If that means marching troops from the south to shoot half the population in the north then that will be done.  Will China be able to respond as it needs to over coming years?  The answer is no.  The population is becoming educated and is seeing what is happening in the rest of the world, uncensored by the ruling elite.  China will suffer more and more internal strife and once again become inward looking.  As the world gets poorer there will be no one to buy its products and it will be poorly placed to feed itself having got to that state just when it needs not to be there.

When a giant dies and thrashes about in its death throes it might crush onlookers.  Indeed there might be many giants all thrashing at the same time, but China will not harm anyone.  It will die without any public shows of emotion or damage to others.

When will it die?  Well it certainly won’t double in size over the next 8 years…

It is obvious: the Chinese are inscrutable, and not always right.

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