It is Obvious

Chris Rick has got altogether too much to say

Fear – the silent killer

Posted by chrisrick13 on October 30, 2011

It is obvious: don’t believe all you read

I have seen a lot of press coverage on the theme that the UK is now being excluded from the inner circle of EU nations.  We are a second class citizen in the EU.  There is some golden future that the UK will not now be part of.  We will be impotent.

Tosh.  All these things may happen but not because we are not part of the Euro.

I have an elephant in the cupboard and I will get him out in a moment.  First I would like to comment on economics and economic theory.  I read a lot about complex economic theories accounting for what happens when central banks take certain actions.  I hear of classic Keynesian theory, Monetarists, Output Gap and many others.  All of these are theories that perhaps did fit very well the economic modelling at a certain point in history.  Those points in history do not exist now.  The floundering of central bankers and governments shows that they are making ‘best-guesses’ and seeing what happens.  They have no idea.

We have not been so far up the growth curve before.  We have not been subject to imminent peak-oil.  There have not been 7bn people around before.  Nothing in macro-economics from the past will help much today other than the psychology of large numbers of people acting in the same way.  The past cannot repeat itself as the conditions are in place to prevent it ever happening the same way again.

Do you want to hear something funny?  Today David Cameron said: it was up to the Bank of England to ensure the inflation rate fell back.  And I thought it was down to the BoE to make sure it never went up in the first place.

I can hear some trumpeting.  I remember!  I’ll just open the door.  Seems pretty full in the cupboard today.  I know England aren’t playing.  Ahhh – got it.  There’s a load of baby boomers in there.  They aren’t doing much except consuming and asking me for money.

It seems they want pensions…and so does the rest of Europe.  They seem to want a lot more than I have got to give.  Never mind I’ll join them soon enough.

As I understand it all the pension schemes are reverse Ponzi schemes.  Everyone can have a pension provided there are enough people around to give them one on the long-term bet that there will be people around to give them a pension when they retire.  So who is going to miss out?  Everyone alive today to a greater or lesser extent.

Who will be the biggest losers in the pension shortfall?  Europe of course.

It is obvious: don’t believe all you read – you can trust me though

2 Responses to “Fear – the silent killer”

  1. Will said

    I agree but…

    The economists today specialize in predicting the past. (They are quite good at it and can devise all manner of theories that explain it perfectly.)

    Politicains talking bull*** and blaming others. (they really believe it, the public swallows it, the press print it and the markets (generally) ignore it)

    So what else is new?

    • The title does warn you about the content!

      It is people such as you who stand up to be counted who make a difference. The other side to it is that you can make a huge difference for yourself. That is where I’m trying to head off to.

      Chris Rick

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