It is Obvious

Chris Rick has got altogether too much to say


Posted by chrisrick13 on November 23, 2011

It is obvious: nothing changes

A long time ago when I weighed a deal less than I do now and had knees that worked properly I ran 5 London Marathons.  I ran one without any training due to injury: I was not going to miss a hard-to-get slot.  If it came up during conversation people would marvel at my feat.  However I was not so impressed.  I would reply that if the phone rang and in a thick Irish accent someone would say “This is the IRA” (which sets the timeframe and now would be an Arabic accent saying “This is al-Qaeda”) and would go on “we don’t like you, but if you run a marathon for XXX charity in five months time we won’t shoot you” then it would not matter who you were or what shape you were in…you would run it.

I was motivated.  Does not matter what the motivation was – I had it.  I have had other motivations in the past and look back at some of the things I have done in amazement.  I can’t imagine how I managed them.  The simple answer is that I had motivation then that I do not have now.

So it is with many things today.  I have recently been re-sensitized to energy in general and oil in particular.  I am convinced that while we might not run out of oil in my lifetime that we will move to a state where demand exceeds supply.  This will happen even with the coming world recession.  The market will operate and prices will go up to depress demand.  Except that national interests might take over and other actions be taken to guarantee supply beyond market forces.

You can read much about oil and its prospects – I do not need to repeat the arguments here.  What is beyond doubt is that there is a limit.  What is in debate is how much there is and how much can be grabbed.  For example Saudi Arabia is, to say the least, coy about how much it has.  Some net exporters are expanding their consumption and might soon not be.  Oil, while it has not run out yet, could be in short supply very suddenly.  What would that mean for us?  It would mean a lot of pain of one sort or another: energy costs rise so much that we cannot heat our homes, no petrol/diesel for private use or severe rationing, rolling power cuts every day.  What would be our response?  The whole nation would focus on acquiring alternative energy.  Just about anything the government demanded funds for would be given.  In a few short years (10+) we would become self-sufficient in energy.  Life might be pleasant (or not) but it would be different.  Those 10+ years would be full of motivation.

I can’t avoid economics.  So far we have borrowed a lot of money and spent it.  I hope you think you got value for money over the last 20 years.  Largely because of debt the world economic system has a few problems.  But what is the effect in this country?  There is a lot of entertaining news coverage.  ‘Johnny-foreigner’ seems to be suffering in lots of places around the world due to his profligacy – quite right too.  In this country?  A few people have stopped working and get their income directly from the government instead of via a salary.  But nobody died out there to mis-quote McEnroe.  I hear a lot of words as I have already noted but see little action.  So it is a matter of waiting for something to cause large pain to lots of people.  Then there will be action.

What I find painful is that it is possible to prepare to act even if action is not possible until the pain arrives (bloody democracies), but we don’t.

It is obvious: nothing changes until enough people suffer enough pain

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