It is Obvious

Chris Rick has got altogether too much to say

Duck! No, I saw it coming.

Posted by chrisrick13 on July 12, 2012

It is obvious: there are many ways to make money

When I was at university I supplemented my grant by betting on horses.  It was hard work and the supplementation was small so I gave up and gave up ideas of doing it for a living.  My take was to look for horses that were mis-priced.  Does not happen a lot as everyone else has a good idea of what is likely to win and bookies set prices that means they don’t lose.  (Ever seen a poor bookie?)

At the time I was doing it there was a horse called Brigadier Gerrard.  Somewhat of a legend who won 14 (high-class) races in a row.  Come number 15 I thought it was still in winning mode and was just a way to print money.  I put £10 on and the odds were 1-9.  It duly won and I got £11 back.  This was at a time that my grant to survive the year was £300.  So £10 was a lot of money.  The following day I put the £1 profit on a horse whose name I cannot remember.  It won at 25-1.

I then sat down and had a long think about what I had just done.  Had I assessed the risk on Brigadier Gerrard correctly?  In his next race he was priced at 1-11…and was beaten by Roberto.  To show what his class was he ran twice more and won them both at better odds…and I didn’t put a penny on.

Every day I see people being stuck in jail for stealing £20 from a shop, diverting £5,000 cash from a company account for, swindling old ladies of tens of thousands for poor house repairs.  How foolish.  I see the likes of Madoff who swindled billions but hung around to be caught – even more stupid.

Were I to steal any money I would do it in one hit, it would have to be more than £5m, and I would have had to find somewhere desirable to live that has no extradition treaties.  If you are going to do it, do it big, do it quickly, do it only once.  Fail any of those and you are daft.

I can see how temptation happens though.  I often look at the coffee loyalty stamp at my local Nero…

Obviously this leads me to the LIBOR fraud.  By manipulating the rates Barclays, for example, maybe made £100m.  That was big for them if it was all profit or the person doing it was on a 5% bonus.  A lot of people out there lost billions for just a small change in the interest rates, and they are coming back after their money.  It was Brigadier Gerrard’s 16th race.

If you can get put away for a week for stealing £20 how long do you get for billions?  It will be interesting to see.

It is obvious: there are many ways to make money – it seems, all with risk attached except banking

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