It is Obvious

Chris Rick has got altogether too much to say

What now?

Posted by chrisrick13 on July 22, 2012

It is obvious: shouting loud is not enough

I am puzzled.  The economy is in a position from which there is no recovery without pain.  We owe a lot and it has to paid some time, some how.  There is little chance of any growth that would allow us to sail out with more loans based on ability to service those loans into the future.  We all have to get poorer and that can happen in many different ways.

While that is playing out over the coming years a similar set of conditions are in place in many countries that include the USA and a lot of Europe.  Also about half the world’s populations lives in two countries (India and China) that are growing at 7% a year (and more in the recent past).  Applying the prostitute’s question and the rule of 70 they will double in size in 10 years consuming as much over those 10 years as they have in all previous history.  It is obvious that they will fail to grow at that rate and double in size in 10 years (if ever) by definition they will revert to zero growth or less over the next 10 years.

If it is so obvious that there is going to be a major reset why are two questions, so far, unanswered: when will the reset begin, what can the individual best do?  All the Cassandras out there are getting the direction right but they are not getting the timing at all.  They are all strangely silent on what to do to preserve your assets.  It bothers me that there is perhaps nothing that can be done.

I have been saying for some time that house prices in the UK will fall and I really missed it.  People taunt me about when it might happen yet they dropped 20% from peak in 2007 to bottom in 2009 and 10% now in absolute terms.  In inflation adjusted terms that 10% becomes 22%.  Sounds like a drop to me  Few people seem concerned.  So it is not the curse of Cassandra in that nobody believes the prophets, actually nobody is listening.  Our wealth reduction is under way.  I wonder when we will all notice?

I have thought that the population in general simply believes that the government will look after them and there is no need to worry.  I wonder where the evidence for that comes from?  Clearly evidence actually seems superfluous to requirements.

The bad news is that with the heavy rain of recent months my onion patch has been a lake for much of it and is an almost total failure.  That leaves me to slug it out with the birds, insects and the bloody squirrels for ownership of the apples, pears, plums and cherries that are a bumper crop this year.

It is obvious: shouting loud is not enough, poking with a sharp stick does not do it either.

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