It is Obvious

Chris Rick has got altogether too much to say

What is worse than a weather forecast?

Posted by chrisrick13 on April 29, 2013

It is obvious: Cassandra had lots of problems

 

Have you heard the joke about the brick-layer who built a wall and when the foreman inspected it he declared it the worst wall he had ever seen.  He was about to fire the man who defended himself that it was not that bad a wall as walls go.  The foreman said that if he could show him a worse wall he would not fire him.  The brick-layer took him to another part of the site and showed him a second wall.  The foreman had to admit it was worse.  Reluctantly he agreed to keep the brick-layer on but asked him if he knew who built that second wall. “I did,” replied the brick-layer.

I read today that the Spanish government expects the economy to contract by 1.3% this year and not the 0.5% contraction it predicted before the year started when it could still be called a prediction and not a ‘statement of the bleedin obvious’.  What a surprise.  Are any of these numbers ever revised upwards?  At least they are following Rick’s law closely.

It also predicts that the economy will grow next year by 0.5%.  I can’t offer any fact based comment on that. 

Last year the economy contracted by 1.37% which was almost a record.  Of course the prediction for last year was one of growth.  What a surprise.

Sit and have a think of any factors that might affect the Spanish economy over the next two years.  I can see lots of EU countries with contracting economies.  These are major trading partners of Spain, so no growth there.  I can see a lot of Spanish banks that are not very healthy due to non-performing property loans.  So that will dampen business activity in the country.  I can see more than a million empty houses with nobody remotely interested in living in them.  I cannot see any strong factors that will likely cause the needed 2% change in the economy for the prediction to come true other than downwards ones taking it in the opposite direction.

I bet, and will put money on it with anyone who cares to take the bet, that the Spanish economy will not grow next year.  I might also bet that not only will it shrink next year, it will shrink more than this.
It is obvious: Cassandra had lots of problems that you just don’t get today

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