It is Obvious

Chris Rick has got altogether too much to say

Is that Roy Rogers on his horse…

Posted by chrisrick13 on February 19, 2014

It is obvious: there is nothing new in the world

I have a big advantage over the economists in the world – I know nothing about economics.  Actually I do:
For every seller there is a buyer at some price.
What goes up comes down a lot further than you ever think possible.
Lemmings follow.
The Laffer curve is programmed into all of us.
It is possible to read a pattern into any random curve.
Bookies (and bankers and market makers) always drive big cars.

All of these, and the many more that I have, leave you standing, paralysed, in the on-coming headlights.

I have read a lot over recent years and can recognise the ‘spin’, intended or not, on media output.  Perhaps it is attempts to simplify so that most people will understand that somehow move away from the truth.  Perhaps it is the simple journalists!

I recognise the spouting of MPs, bankers, CEOs and others.  They are all stretches of the truth.  A lie would be caught out.

Predicting the future has not been easy since Cassandra.  Entities such as the IMF and ONS issue updates on their predictions.  Nice words but they could say: hey we really missed out on that prediction – try another one – probably be just as good as the last one, but it might be right and it might push you to act in the way we want you to.

But if you can’t get the kind of performance that you want, particularly as a government, then change the measures.  Make them a suitable metric and make sure that it is not possible to run any comparison into the past.  Inflation and its measuring criteria over the last 10 years are a good example.

So it is not easy to predict where economic activity is going.  A good starting point might be to find the BoE view and take an opposite one.  Rick’s law helps.

Plan for the worst hope for the best.  Don’t hope for the best and make no plans.  But what if it is not possible to make plans as it is all too complex and too random?  Look for Roy Roger’s horse.

I have two of these: the Scottish Referendum in September, the general election in 2015.

It is obvious: there is nothing new in the world because we keep repeating ourselves, mistakes and all


One Response to “Is that Roy Rogers on his horse…”

  1. Bill said

    Very true in all you said. We are approaching a year of spin as the election date approaches. The Tories will do their best to delay any items that might rock the Re-Election Boat until after the public have cast their votes. So my prediction would be that interest rates will not move until after then.

    Once you vote is made then they don’t have to worry about you for five years and their priorities can be:-
    Their Own Interests
    The Lobyists
    Big Business

    You (perhaps)

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