It is Obvious

Chris Rick has got altogether too much to say

Bang!

Posted by chrisrick13 on March 3, 2014

It is obvious: there are no squashed hedgehogs on the roads any more

That nice Mr Putin has stopped anyone intervening in the internal affairs of the nation called Syria.  However it is OK for him to intervene in the Ukraine.  Two-faced git.

There is one good thing about the world economy: everyone relies on everyone else.  So Mr Putin has seen the world markets moving against him and he is in a poor place to rescue his economy.  He has the oil and gas weapon.  Now he can just sell it all to China instead of Europe.  It will cause problems for Europe.  However relying on China is not that smart a move.  The Chinese are far smarter than he is and they will need help soon enough.  Once you have used oil and gas supplies as weapons, as everyone forecast he would, the value of those weapons decreases.  If he weans Europe off his oil and gas it will take a very good offer to get Europe back again and he will need to.  Mr Putin has done the only thing he knows how to do: send the tanks in.  It is a different world now.

I am back to a familiar theme: triggers.  Is Ukraine going to be a trigger for step changes in the world economy?  No.  The problem is that it does not need a global trigger.  Just one country has to have a problem and everyone else will.  Ukraine is not that country.

What about UK triggers?  My theory is that triggers are, by definition,  unexpected which makes them not subject to prediction or analysis.  However there are future events in the calendar that might make us vulnerable to otherwise harmless trigger events.  The European elections are only 7 weeks away.  UKIP to come first?  Quite possible.  Then the Scottish referendum comes soon after.  I want Scotland to go but it will be the worse for the sum of the parts.  We should stay together.  A few months ago independence had no chance.  It does now.  Then there is the backstop of the general election in mid-2015.  It really does not matter what the result is, present policies will burst the bubble soon after it.  I wonder that the coalition is daring Labour to try to win and sort the mess out.  Maybe the Conservatives did have the right idea to take power at the election knowing they could hang on for 5 years and put Labour back in for the mess.  Have you noticed the colour of Mr Milliband’s hair?

It is obvious: there are no squashed hedgehogs on the roads any more but there are still hedgehogs around.

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One Response to “Bang!”

  1. Bill said

    I agree that the situation in Ukraine is bad but is it a trigger – only time will tell. My guess is that a withdrawal of ‘Right to Buy’ and a hike in interest rates might nudge the housing market into decline and we could be back to square one?

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