It is Obvious

Chris Rick has got altogether too much to say

Archive for April, 2014

I can do this

Posted by chrisrick13 on April 22, 2014

It is obvious: I know where I’m going

There is a place on the MPC up for grabs.  Shaun Richards has applied.  No chance he will get it as he is the perfect man for the job.

I’ve been looking at some of my predictions.  I’m thinking of revising my WW II prediction from a German win to an Allies win.

There.  That puts my predictive performance on a par with the MPC and all its members.  I’m perfect for the job.  Think I’ll apply.

It is obvious: I know where I’m going – away from where I started…at least initially.

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Stick to the numbers

Posted by chrisrick13 on April 22, 2014

It is obvious: You can fool most of the people all of the time

It is not easy to describe something without a bias.  Doing it without a bias is hard work that few are prepared to put in.

However numbers are predictable.  If you add 2 and 2 it always has and always will come out at 4…except where it is 100.

So looking at numbers requires two levels of effort.  First verify that the numbers are correct then look at what part of the story they are telling.  Inflation is now at 1.6%  whereas two years ago it was 3.2% so inflation has halved; except that then the measure was RPI and they are using CPI now.  The value of RPI is 2.2% so the reduction is not a half but a third.

Are those numbers right?  They are a consistent relative measure over the time of their use.  But inflation is different things to different people.  They are a view that is self-consistent.  What makes them useful is that they provide comparison over a long period.  Except that now they change the basis for the calculation of just about every statistic at frequent intervals.

Whether the numbers are right or not they are useless.

So I am brought to David Moyes.  Sacked today.  He was in charge of Manchester United for…how long?  I have seen 11 months and 10 months.  Quite a variation for something that has a well defined start and end date.  He started on July 1st and finishes on April 22nd of the following year.

I can round it to 10 months.
I can be precise at 9 months and 22 days…but maybe that should be 21 days and 8.5 hours.
I could go with 292 days.
I could say 49 games.

All of these have different impacts on me.

The BBC did a decent comparison of him to other Man U managers but did not mention him in comparison to other managers in the same league.

Numbers are just as tricky as words.  Do not get lulled into a false sense of security just because you have been given numbers.

It is obvious: You can fool most of the people all of the time but you can fool all the media all the time (or buy them)

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