It is Obvious

Chris Rick has got altogether too much to say

Scary movie

Posted by chrisrick13 on March 3, 2015

It is obvious: I can tell the future

I used to make a set of predictions at the beginning of each year.  I found plenty of good reasons to stop.

I feel that I ought to make a prediction about the election.  It will at least generate a small amount of interest in the process for me.

A friend of mine pointed me at bookmakers for accurate predictions of the future.  I think that for an election they are at their best.  Bookies just balance their books.  So betting odd for an election are not created from  a carefully chosen population.  It is a population of people who have thought about it and come to a sufficiently strong view that they are prepared to put some money on it.  Perhaps a poor representative sample but a larger one than a poll and I think a much more knowledgeable one.

At one bookie they have odds on for no overall majority.  I think few in this country would disagree.  (Though you can get odds on both Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage being the next leader of the Conservatives.)  It is odds on for the Conservatives to have the largest party and odds on for Ed Milliband to be the next PM – which is a tacit acknowledgement that if Conservatives do not form the next government then Cameron is toast.

Hold on a moment.   Ed Milliband to be PM.  It might be the dream ticket with Ed Balls as Chancellor of the Exchequer!

The Conservatives should have passed at the last election.  At least Milliband and Balls will make Labour unelectable for a generation or two.

I feel quite unwell reading that.  To my theme, can I go against the market?  John Major did it.  Can Cameron?  I think not.  If you add up the right and left-wing parties there is just not enough on the right.  SNP will take Labour seats but will vote with Labour for the right bribes.  UKIP will take a few seats but there are enough Labour racists to even out the votes UKIP takes from both main parties.  Greens are left-wing and will take few seats.  Liberals will be smaller than SNP and not big enough to form a coalition with Conservatives to get 5 more years of pseudo-power.  Welsh Nationalists are small but on the left.  Northern Ireland MPs are a closed book to me, but few enough to swing things on their own.

I have two results in mind: Labour and Milliband in charge from May.  They will form a coalition with three other parties and there will be other parties that will support them on most things though not in the coalition.  The trigger event will occur early in their parliament (within a year) and it will not go the full term.  Perhaps 18 months will be it.

The other is possible result is that it is a properly hung parliament with nobody able to coalesce into a majority.  That will mean another election called immediately (and in the EU they always have votes until the right result is achieved so we are at least becoming more European) or a minority government that will do what it can for a few months.

I feel quite depressed about Milliband running things.  I was depressed enough at the prospect of 5 more years of the Conservatives!  So perhaps a few months of minority government is the best result I can hope for!

On that basis I predict that a minority government of the Conservatives will be formed which will last just a few months.  Labour will be able to choose the timing of the next election with a confidence vote when they want.

As a Conservative supporter of many years (but no longer) the Conservatives really should pass this time…but they won’t.

It is obvious: I can tell the future to anybody who will listen


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