It is Obvious

Chris Rick has got altogether too much to say

The Greecey slope

Posted by chrisrick13 on May 29, 2015

It is obvious: there are a lot of puns to be worked out of my system

There is a good laugh to be had looking back at the projections for the Greek economy by the organisations that are ‘rescuing’ it.  Percentage debt almost down to double figures.  GDP growth nearly 3%.  Unemployment almost in single figures.

Nobody that I was reading at the time believed that the numbers were anything better than fairy tales, and they were all right.

At the moment there is a public negotiation over the Greek debt.  There is also a very private one going on as well.  I have had it explained to me how austerity measures increase a deficit and a debt.  Demanding more austerity for Greece will have the effect of increasing the debt.  So why do it?

Greece is just further down a hole that many countries including the UK are also descending.  Austerity will not work.  Growth to earn more to pay off  debts is not possible.  All that remains is to avoid paying off the debts.  There are three ways.  First you can default and tell the lenders to b***er off.  Second you can steal it from someone directly as Cyprus did and pay off debts with it.  There is only one victim to hand.  At least there it a country’s worth of them.  Third you can steal it from everyone indirectly by decent inflation.

None of these options are very alluring if you have any connection with the country.

Of course there is one more option and that involves a fairy-godmother with a lot of money…Germany?

The Greek country owes more than twice as much as its GDP.  The country is in so much chaos that its GDP is shrinking.  I cannot pay off the debt.  It cannot even pay the interest on the debt.  The people who have leant Greece money are going to lose some or all of it.  This public negotiation will run until the Greek people have had enough.  There might then be a revolution.  There might be an election and the right-wing extremists will be given a go.

What do I care?  It is a long way away.  They are ‘Johnny foreigners’.  There is the potential for cheap holiday in future – though would you holiday in a country where they are no longer paying their policemen?  The problem is that a bank near you is probably one of those mentioned in the paragraph above.  What is worse they might not even realise it as the money they leant to someone else who leant to someone else…is the money someone else leant to Greece so that they could push double-digit-returns back up the chain.

Things always go on longer than you can possibly believe…which they have already done.

It is obvious: there are a lot of puns to be worked out of my system so I’d better do it now before it ceases to be funny

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