It is Obvious

Chris Rick has got altogether too much to say

Have you got to the top of the hills yet?

Posted by chrisrick13 on June 15, 2015

It is obvious: things are subtle
I’ve passed this on to a number of friends:

This is the definitive video on investing.

CNBC ran a poll of money people such as traders, brokers, advisers, money-market people, on the best safe-haven for their money.  The winner by a considerable margin was: under the mattress.

On CNBC they limit themselves to discussing Greece or they would be at it for all the programme.  They had a ‘Greece minute’ the other day.  I wonder how many people realise that there is a 1.7bn payment due at the end of the month and Greece is trying to get 1.7bn out of the aid package so that it…can pay back the people who leant it 1.7bn a while ago.

Every day that goes by sees the Greek economy shrinking.  Therefore it is daily reducing its chances of paying off its debts.  Yet they are negotiating a set of measures that Greece must undertake that will further cut its ability to repay debt in order for it to take on more debt.

It seems obvious to me and all the people I read who are not paid by some interest group for their opinion.

A lot of commentators are saying that it is a negotiating game to see who will ‘blink first’.  I think they are wrong.  Greece has the strong position.  Unless a fairy godmother comes along and gives Greece lots of money it will default its debt and the economy will crash even more than it has.  Any negotiated terms only delay that moment and the delay now cannot be long.  So for Greece it is crash unless the fairy godmother appears.  Might as well sit it out and see if one turns up.

The other side of the negotiating table knows that there is no fairy godmother so is just trying to get as much time as possible to prepare so that it can minimise the damage from a Greek default.  What can the ECB do to ease the pain?  Watch out for the start of a massive QE effort disguised as for another purpose.  That is a pre-cursor and should trigger you to prepare yourself.

Oh – it’s happened already…

It is obvious: things are subtle usually only to the perpetrators of that ‘subtlety’

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