It is Obvious

Chris Rick has got altogether too much to say

Archive for July, 2016

The fat lady is still rummaging around in her knickers draw

Posted by chrisrick13 on July 27, 2016

It is obvious: we have said “out”

Last week I saw Brexit discussed on tv.  The panel of experts looked at several scenarios.

The government triggers article 50 and we are off and running.  At the end of 2 years the UK is out the EU.  I’ll assume that there are mechanisms in place that handle the case where an agreement has not been reached so that after 2 years we are gone.

Prior to that the government will need to get agreement that the deal it has negotiated, the ‘package’, is what we all want.  Will it?  Hadn’t thought of that.  As it stands a vote of MPs who are mostly in the remain group is likely to reject the enabling legislation.  Some leavers will reject the deal as they think it not good enough.  Remainers will want to remain.

If the ‘package’ is put to the country in another referendum what will happen then?  Same deal.  Many of those who want out will not want out with that particular package.  Those who want to remain will not want any package.  So it is likely that both parliament and the people will reject any ‘package’.  Of course it will depend on the question asked.  The rugby video referee is sometimes asked “was it a try?”, sometimes “is there any reason I cannot award a try?”.

I can see why the EU will not start negotiating until article 50 is in force.  The ‘no agreement’ provisions will be good for the EU – they would be if I wrote them.  Why give the UK chance to negotiate something when disagreement will be best for the EU.

It is obvious: we have said “out” and we’ll have to say it again and again

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Home rules

Posted by chrisrick13 on July 18, 2016

It is obvious: Fog in the Channel

With Brexit we have gained control of the laws that govern us both in the making and the execution. That is all that matters. Whatever the price, it is worth paying and I am still not sure that there will be any price.

A lot of people (clearly) voted OUT because they want to get control of immigration. The right vote for the wrong reason. But it has resulted in a first step along that road anyway. With the devaluing of the pound the UK has become less attractive for people from the poorer parts of the EU. Some will not now come. Others will hasten their departure. More jobs for Brits should we have any who could or would want to take them. Less pressure on housing and services for that reduced population. Ooops don’t we need more people to get GDP growth?

Scotland continues to amuse. Let them take what remains of the oil, a goodly part of the national debt and stop getting the payments from the UK. They can try to find a currency to use: Greece is a good example of getting tied to the Euro. The border will be tricky particularly as Hadrian’s wall is well into England but building May’s wall is an infrastructure project that will boost the English economy. They can find the infrastructure money to keep oil flowing as well. More expensive oil will come but not for a while yet. Just remember to let the English vote in the next referendum.

The FTSE100 crashed on the referendum result and the pound is down about 7%. As most companies in the FTSE100 are multi-national the inevitable result was a rise in the FTSE100. I had no courage to buy the dip nor am I set up for it. However it might be worth getting there. Is the FTSE100 a good hedge against a sinking pound and inflation. Perhaps. It will not do well in a reset though.

Our goods are now 7% cheaper abroad so we have an unfair advantage! Any tariffs applied by the EU, that the WTO allows, are unlikely to have much net effect.  Meanwhile the rest of the world has opened up somewhat and we are not even out the EU yet!

That is something to remember. We are not out yet. The tangled web has shown to be just that with the ups tied with elastic to many of the downs. Watch the system settle. The first panic reactions are over and now things will settle for a while. My eyes have moved back abroad. Italian banks look to be in ever deeper trouble. I guess Turkey is now a long way away from EU membership. Greece is moving to chaos with a few key dates quite close.

That settling has shown that my thought that Brexit would be a trigger is wrong. In itself that shows little will change hugely from Brexit…other than control of our own laws: which is where I came in and what it is all about.
It is obvious: Fog in the Channel – once again Europe isolated

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