It is Obvious

Chris Rick has got altogether too much to say

I’m out

Posted by chrisrick13 on March 6, 2017

It is obvious: nobody moves

The UK has a trade deficit with the rest of the world.  It is not a good state of affairs.  Either the UK will do something about it or the rest of the world will.

Our deficit with the EU is huge.  The leaders of the EU are threatening to, effectviely, stop the UK trading with the EU.  Likely done with trade barriers, tariffs and hidden barriers.  (You might remember that France declared that all Japanese VCR machine had to be inspected on arrival in France.  They set up a warehouse (just one) to recieve the imports and staffed it with a dozen members of staff.  They managed to ‘inspect’ maybe 100 a day.  The French population soon removed that barrier!)

That means that in the EU but in particular in Germany and Italy there are about 3million jobs paid for by the UK.  In return the UK has about 0.5million jobs paid for by the EU.  Put the barriers in place and their will be turmoil in the UK…for a short while until we start to make all that EU stuff in the UK.  We will likely see a jump in employment.  I see a lot of skilled retirees returning to work.

What will the loss of 2.5million jobs do to Germany and Italy?  My favourite scenario, the day after retaliatory trade barriers are created, is to listen in to the phone calls between the CEOs of BMW and Mercedees with Mrs Merkel.

It is a measure of the unsitability of the leaders of the EU for that task that they concentrate on a lose-lose scenario rather than a win-win one.

However for the UK the ‘lose’ part will be painful but short.  The ‘win’ will be big and long.

It is obvious: nobody moves or the EU will shoot itself

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2 Responses to “I’m out”

  1. Bill said

    Glad to see that you are back and blogging – I have to say that I like your analysis but also that the UK seems determined to shoot itself in the foot too. We seem to want (well the House of Lords anyway) do any negotiations in advance? Why the hell do the Lords want to Guarantee the rights of EU citizens without a reciprocal arrangement with the EU for our national living in EU countries? They all need sending on a Negotiating Techniques course. Perhaps the Lords know that what they say is going to be reversed in the commons, so it doesn’t matter any more. If so why the hell is the country paying them for this sinecure?

    I think that the only fault with your argument is that it is based on logic. The current set of politicians are just that, trained politicians, they are divorced from the real world and have their own motivations which are mainly linked to union/company tie-ups – oh and, every 5 years, having to go through the hassle of being re-elected.

    The EU has another problem; I suspect the negotiators will be experienced and tough – they will fight for the best deal – then it will all fall apart if required to be ratified by the member states.

    • As always, new perspectives I had not thought about and you have spoilt at least one future blog!

      Have you tried playing poker where you lay your hand on the table face up? Seems a lot of people want us to do that. Idiots.

      I never thought. A deal is agreed then it goes to the 27 member states where at least one will not be having it. Turbulent times and just maybe the UK can wave from the beach and leave the EU to tear itself apart.

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