It is Obvious

Chris Rick has got altogether too much to say

I’ve got a spec in my eye

Posted by chrisrick13 on June 20, 2017

It is obvious: you can’t rely on foreigners

Have you noticed? Japan has a debt at over 200% of its GDP. That’s OK because it owes the debt to the inveterate savers of the country. Is it that it easy to take the money away from your own population and nobody else will care?

Japan was a dominant force in the world economy 25 years ago. Now it is still a large economy but there are many problems. The demographics of the country are not good…at least until all the old people die off and then there is a virtuous circle. There are some large Japanese corporations that are all but bankrupt. I wonder how the average Japanese in the street thinks about the government decision to buy millions of Yen’s worth of Mitsubishi bonds?

Just a short distance away is China. It’s debt to GDP ratio is over 250%. Not much of that was lent by the Chinese people! Economics has moved away from the history books but when a country starts expansionism it is often to hide internal problems and we can all see what China is doing in the South China Sea. Another indicator is the large numbers of rich Chinese ‘getting out’.

I have also started frequently reading the comment ‘hard landing’ applied to China. When the world’s largest economy suddenly changes its path then there will be a lot of turmoil one way or another.

So the world’s two largest economies are in what can best be called unstable states. Third up, Japan, is in a third ‘lost decade’. Europe including the UK is also in a state that is at best unstable. One of the BRICs has already collapsed – Brazil. Russia is suffering with the low oil price and that is on a nice downward trend at the moment. Russia only has oil. It does not have a good industrial base or strong agriculture. Africa will grow to significance one day but not for a long time.

We have come a long way down the order of things to arrive at India. Will India save the world economy? I don’t think so.

 

I have just thought of a way for the UK to resolve its economic problems. There is plenty of precedent with Mr Carney running the UK economy. Eddie Jones running the English rugby team and Mr Gatland running the Welsh. We need a new man at the treasury.  A foreigner.  Mr Mugabe will soon be done with his current job. He did so well with the economy of his country…

It is obvious: you can’t rely on foreigners they’ve learnt from us how to screw things up

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