It is Obvious

Chris Rick has got altogether too much to say

The kick in the tail

Posted by chrisrick13 on October 23, 2017

It is obvious: stupid

To stop the global economy from collapsing we need continued expansion of our economy, everyone’s economy. Support of old debt and new debt comes out of increased production or economic activity. Those debts include money spent and promises of money such as pensions. That can’t happen. As you turn the corner on the exponential curve even the lowest rate of increases become impossible in a very short time. It runs the same for oil reserves and consumption of them.

To double the economy every 30 years or so needs more people to produce and consume. We cannot each of us double our production and consumption. I’ll volunteer for the population increase side of things and the consume bit as well, but I’m retired so I need a lot of other people to produce for me. If we have lots of new people to keep economic activity increasing they have to live somewhere – production of their housing will be part of the increased economic activity which helps. Increased consumption of decreasing reserves of all sorts of stuff though.

There are at least 20 million places where people live in the UK – to be very fuzzy. To double the population we will need another…20 million places for people to live. Allowing for places to fall-down or be pulled down this going to be at least 700,000 new houses/flats a year.

There is the problem that at the moment that a lot of people who want to live in their own home or at least a place bought by a loan from a bank cannot afford to. The (Labour) government created a rule that on any development of housing anywhere 1 in 13 of the houses had to be low-cost social housing. A piece of genius by the government as all developments suddenly only had 12 houses in them. I wonder if this is still in place? Then the (Conservative) government created schemes such as Funding for Lending and Help to Buy that were there to help first time buyers get a house. Of course if the seller knows that the buyer can get more money they put their prices up and this is what has happened. Buyers have climbed a step while the house price has climbed two.

How can you house the extra 60 million needed in this country over the next 30 years? The answer is very simple: build houses. Just build and build and build. It is a market and soon house prices will fall because everyone will see supply rising to meet demand. A cabinet minister last week proposed 300,000 new houses a year. He is only 100% out on the number needed. No details and it is just words, very similar words to those I have heard many times over the years.  (I’ll ignore the problem of where those houses might be put.)

The problem? The proposal is not enough to support the population growth this country needs to avoid the economy failing. Without the growth (and the people) we will default on debts. The pound will devalue. Nobody will lend us money. The only solution will be hyper-inflation or very high interest rates.  It might be civil unrest and a lot of other very unpleasant effects.

I am an optimist. Lets just suppose that we pull it off. 20 million homes and population doubled in 30 years. 120 million of us sit uneasily on this island. What happens next. Come on! Catch up! In the following 30 years we’ll need another 120 million people and 40 million more houses. I’m nearly 70. I don’t care. If I was 10 I would be looking nervously into the future because the one I have laid out, as unpleasant as it might be will not happen (twice). It will be something worse.

It is obvious: stupid…its an exponential curve


One Response to “The kick in the tail”

  1. Mark said

    Today is 2017, and population is 60M (more like 67M)
    So we need 120M by 2047 – that’s what you’re clearly saying?
    And 240M by 2077.
    And 480M by 2107.
    Can we say 1 billion UK population by 2140?

    Really?, What REALLY?

    Working back, the population must have been 30M in 1987.
    And 15M in 1957.
    And 7.5M in 1927.

    Really? But it wasn’t.

    Can you warn the ONS bcause they seem to have got it badly wrong. (they say 76M in 2045, not 120M in 2047))

    What am I missing?

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