It is Obvious

Chris Rick has got altogether too much to say

Archive for August, 2018

The Horsemen of the Apocalypse (first XV) – new season starts soon

Posted by chrisrick13 on August 7, 2018

It is obvious: Cassandra had a hard time of it

There are too many easy targets out there and too many people writing for me to consider it worth putting pen to paper regularly.

Then the weight of it all overwhelms me and I feel compelled to write.

I am a serial housing crash predictor. If you predict a crash long enough then it will happen. The advice is that things go on for longer than you can ever expect. Indeed we should have had a housing crash already but there are plenty of people working to stop it.

The trouble is that they are not fixing the problem They are can kicking. When it does happen the problem will be bad. I think short, but bad.

Why should there be a problem? Most people can afford the mortgage they have even if only just (JAMS). If interest rates rise then the problems occur. A quarter percent does nothing. We need 3 or 4 percent…and the economy needs that as well.

We need higher interest rates to kill off inflation or to protect the pound or to persuade people to lend to us. Just standard economics hugely simplified.

A bit more? We can borrow and let future generations pay it off if we keep increasing GDP. Even at 2% increase a year it is exponential and we will double the economy in 35 years…except we won’t.

There are a number of conflicting themes coming at the UK and one of them at least will have to go.

The net result is that a lot of people are going to become very poor. As long as one of them is not me!

My bet is that the government through the independent BoE (sic) will protect housing prices for a very long time. This means inflation will rise a lot and the value of the pound will fall and even collapse. I was alive when there were over 4 dollars to the pound. I might live to see 4 pounds to the dollar.

There is the potential for huge societal change in this country and probably many others.

This blog might be of some use if I could tell you what will happen and when. I can’t. It might be of some use if I could tell you how to stop any disaster. I can’t.

All I can do is offer some guidance (other than a shotgun, barbed wire and the spare bedroom full of baked bean tins.)

I think pension annuities are a big mistake. Take them all as cash. Do not leave the cash in banks. Spend the money or save it for an improvement in annuity rates.

I have deferred my state pension for 3 years giving me a 33% uplift on my pension should I take it now. I will delay some more but will take the money as cash when my tax position allows it.

Spread money across investments and countries but make that countries that you want to visit.

Buy some gold. Physical stuff you can put your hands on. Not much, but if things get really bad then you might find it very useful. It is priced in dollars so if the GBP does go to 4 to the dollar it will be a smart investment when it was only really insurance.

Keep some cash in the house. Be prepared for cash machines to disappear for a few days or even weeks.

I have a trigger theory but it does not help anything. Triggers happen and by their nature are not predictable. Brexit ought to be one. I expect the EU to change soon…but things go on for longer than you can ever expect. Greece, Italy and Portugal might be triggers.

It is obvious: Cassandra had a hard time of it but “I told you so” sounds better for the wait

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