It is Obvious

Chris Rick has got altogether too much to say

Archive for August, 2019

Only 20,000 miles and one careful owner

Posted by chrisrick13 on August 6, 2019

It is obvious: A lot of people are frightened of change

You can carry out negotiating with no holds barred like you might with a used car salesman. You are only going to make one purchase then never talk to them again. Or you can carry out principled negotiating where you deal with the other party over a long period of time. Perhaps a supplier to your company. You both want the best price for the service or goods. If one of you is not getting a price that they can sustain then they soon walk away. It is in both your interests to think of the other person. You both seek a win-win.

It says a lot about the EU that they engaged in used car negotiating over Brexit. I heard it said that they had to be hard with the UK or other countries would follow the same route. The EU had no choice. Except that they did have a choice: they could have created an environment that nobody in their right mind would want to leave?

Maybe, just maybe we are going to leave the EU in October. This is going to be awful for the UK…if you listen to the right people. I could mention the IMF. This is the organisation that forecasts economic numbers into the distant future yet revises them, often by large amounts, every month. They have no idea about the future and prove it each month.

Perhaps it is the OBR whose motto is: We are always wrong.

Maybe it is the BoE who issue forward guidance that has so far been the opposite of what it then did.

Nobody knows what Brexit will do if it is enacted without a deal. On that note the EU has gone into second hand car sale mode and today said there is no more to negotiate on the current deal. I really want to be part of that (sic).

There are some things that we do know:

If the UK leaves without a deal then there will be a lot of change and disruption. Many people will suffer and lose. Some will gain. We also know that a month down the line we will have accommodated. That’s what people do.

We know that the Irish economy is dependent on the UK. If the EU insists on a hard border with NI (or even the UK does) then the EU will be pumping a lot of money into Eire. If it does not then the Irish economy will not last a month and probably not a week. The EU will not be far behind it.

The EU needs UK money and trade. It is not one way.

In short we do not know it, but the EU will have a hard time surviving the UK leaving with a deal or a no deal. This is especially so if the world recession is really up and running by then and Lagarde is in charge of the ECB.

You might have thought that they would want a deal where both parties can thrive and grow? How unreasonable to expect that.

What will happen is that there will be changes in the way that Europe and the UK operate for trade.

There will be another big change: we will be back to making our own laws, having an independent judiciary judging them and a non-political police force enforcing them. That is what really matters.

It is obvious: A lot of people are frightened of change – they are called Remainers.

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Daddy, do you remember what it was like to drive a car?

Posted by chrisrick13 on August 1, 2019

It is obvious: you are never alone

I use the mis-quote that in economics things always go on for much longer than you ever think they can.  At the moment we are heading for a huge crash of some sort.  Should have happened a good few years ago but to my amazement has not happened yet.  It is easy to work out though.  There are always some very smart and powerful people working hard to stop it happening.  Eventually they run out of options an the disaster does happen.  Probably much worse because of their efforts however well-meaning (not) then are.

In other areas a very different model applies particularly where some technological/scientific development is involved. Simply it does not happen.  Too much needs to be developed.  Too much investment in infrastructure is needed.  Not enough people to support it with the right knowledge.  The key development is simply not there yet.

…and then it is.  With exponential growth it is there and everyone uses it.

Happened with the car. I saw a picture of a London street full of horses and carriages and carts. Next to it was a picture of the same street with not a horse in sight…taken just 5 years later.

Happened with mobile phones.

Happened with broadband.

Happened with wifi.

Happened with the PC.

Happened with the gap before a computer beat the world champion at chess (and Go)

The big one at the moment is self-driving cars.  This is years away. Not because of technology: all that is needed is already in place.  Mostly it is the public that is preventing it.  The barrier is the development of an AI.  It is years away.

When it comes it will change a lot of society on this planet.  First World countries will be hugely affected.  Third world not so much.  I will be happy to live in the country.  Approaching the age where my licence might be withdrawn or my ability to drive terminate what do I care if I can whistle up a car when I need one?  Just a little forward planning needed for journeys.

In this country a lot of people will be alive who would have died had they or other idiots been at the wheel of a car.  Cars will be driven more economically.  Traffic control will be much more efficient.  I could ramble on a lot more.  Things will be better when humans no longer control cars.

A 20mph limit has been established in my borough.  Very arbitrary the way that some roads have been exempted from it.  Now there are two groups of drivers.  Those doing 20mph and those in queuse behind them taking insane risks and driving at high speed to overtake 20mph drivers.  With driverless cars we’ll all be doing 20mph.  Or at least not doing more than 20mph.  Did you realise that a 20mph/30mph/70mph limit does not mean you have to drive at that speed?

With economics I think you need to at least double the time before any prediction happens.

With technology related you should halve the time and maybe more.

It is obvious: you are never alone doing 20 in a 20mph zone

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